Publications
[58] Kenney, M. A., Kopp, R. E., Samaras, C., et al. (2026). Research priorities for robust climate assessments in the United States. Earth's Future, 14, e2025EF007336. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007336 Kenney, M. A., Kopp, R. E., Samaras, C., et al. (2026). Research priorities for robust climate assessments in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-26-0305.1
[57] Fullhart AT, Gao S, Wang W, Elias EH, Armendariz G, Goodrich DC (2025) Climate adaptation in the southwest US: The SWPar4.5 parameter set for stochastic weather generators. Scientific Data. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-025-06102-5
[56] Khadka A, Elias EH, Halofsky J (2026) Climate change and cultural resources: Assessing exposure to impacts of climate change in New Mexico and Arizona. Climate Risk Management. Accepted 10/29/2026.
[55] Cubilla EA, Hartman MD, Parton WJ, Reed S, Derner JD, Schulte DK, Gornish E, Moore DJP, Elias EH, Peck DE, Fuchs BA, Smith WK (2025) An evaluation of Grass-Cast Southwest, a seasonal rangeland productivity forecast tool for the southwestern United States. Cambridge Prisms: Drylands. e16. doi:10.1017/dry.2025.10013
[54] Elias EH, Brown J, Haigh T, White K (2026) Evaluating the effectiveness of climate service organizations. Climatic Change. 179, 69 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-026-04162-z
[53] Parker LE, Zhang N, Kisekka I, Abatzoglou JT, Elias EH, Steele CM, Ostoja SM (2025) Climate change exposure of agriculture within regulated groundwater basins of the southwestern United States. Climate 13:42. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020042
[52] Frazier A, Lustig A, Chang M, Elias EH, McPherson RA, Keener VW, Grecni ZN, Huntington HP, Mecray EL, Wood KM, Dello KD, Chardón-Maldonado P, White DD (2025) Reflections on preparing regional chapters for NCA5. Climatic Change 178:72. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03874-y
[51] Dinan M, Brunson M, Elias EH, Brown J (2024) Challenges and opportunities for extension in drought adaptation: A case study of ranching in New Mexico. Weather, Climate, and Society 16:639–649. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-23-0098.1
[50] Silber-Coats N, Elias EH, Steele C, Fernald K, Gagliardi M, Hrozencik A, et al. (2024) The water adaptation techniques atlas: A new geospatial library of solutions to water scarcity in the U.S. Southwest. PLOS Water 3(6):e0000246. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pwat.0000246
[49] Schantz MC, Hardegree SP, Sheley RL, Abatzoglou JT, Hegewisch KC, Elias EH, James JJ, Moffet CA (2024) Optimized NMME climate forecasts for rangeland management applications in the western United States. Rangeland Ecology and Management 94:207–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2024.03.008
[48] White DD, Elias EH, Thomas KA, Bradatan CE, Brunson MW, Chischilly AM, Enquist CAF, Fisher LR, Froehlich HE, Koebele EA, Méndez M, Ostoja SM, Steele C, Vanos JK (2023) Southwest. In: Crimmins AR, Avery CW, Easterling DR, Kunkel KE, Stewart BC, Maycock TK (eds) Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH28
[47] Wilmer H, Ferguson DB, Dinan M, Thacker E, Adler PB, Walsh KB, Bradford JB, Brunson M, Derner JD, Elias EH, Felton A, Gray CA, Greene C, McClaran MP, Shriver RK, Stephenson M, Suding KN (2024) Resilience is not enough: Toward a more meaningful rangeland adaptation science. Rangeland Ecology and Management 95:56–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2024.04.003
[46] Bestelmeyer BT, McCord SE, Browning D, Burkett LM, Elias EH, Estell RE, Herrick JE, James D, Spiegal S, Utsumi SA, Webb NP, Williamson J (2023) Fulfilling the promise of digital tools to build rangeland resilience. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2736
[45] Islam KI, Elias EH, Carroll KC, Brown C (2023) Exploring random forest machine learning and remote sensing data for streamflow prediction: An alternative approach to a process-based hydrologic modeling in a snowmelt-driven watershed. Remote Sensing 15:3999. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15163999
[44] Bestelmeyer B, Utsumi S, McCord S, Browning DM, Burkett L, Elias EH, Estell R, Herrick J, James D, Spiegal S, Webb NP, Williamson J (2023) Managing an arid ranch in the 21st century: New technologies for novel ecosystems. Rangelands. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rala.2023.05.002
[43] Elias EH, et al. (2023) A vision for integrated, collaborative solutions to critical water and food challenges. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 78(3):63A–68A. https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.2023.1220A
[42] Elias EH, Fuchs B, Lisonbee J, Bernadt T, Martinez V, Haigh T (2023) Evolution of the Southwest Drought Learning Network: Collective response to exceptional drought. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society E935–E942. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0017.1
[41] McIntosh MM, Spiegal SA, McIntosh SZ, Castaño Sanchez J, Estell RE, Steele CM, Elias EH, Bailey DW, Brown JR, Cibils AF (2023) Matching beef cattle breeds to the environment for desired outcomes in a changing climate: A systematic review. Journal of Arid Environments 211:104905.
[40] Dinan M, Adler PB, Bradford J, Brunson M, Elias EH, Felton A, Greene C, James J, Suding K, Thacker E (2021) Making research relevant: Sharing climate change research with rangelands advisors to transform results into drought resilience. Rangelands 43(5):185–193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rala.2021.08.004
[39] Spiegal S, Cibils AF, Bestelmeyer BT, Steiner JL, Estell RE, Archer DW, Auvermann BW, Bestelmeyer SV, Boucheron LE, Cao H, Cox AR, Devlin D, Duff GC, Ehlers KK, Elias EH, Gifford CA, Gonzalez AL, Holland JP, Jennings JS, Marshall AM, McCracken DI, McIntosh MM, Miller R, Musumba M, Paulin R, Place SE, Redd M, Rotz CA, Tolle C, Waterhouse A (2020) Beef production in the southwestern United States: Strategies toward sustainability. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems 4:114.
[38] Gifford CA, Taylor KM, Spiegal S, Duff GC, Aney S, Elias EH, Steiner JL, Estell R, McFarlane ZD, Schohr TK, DeAtley KL, Banwarth MR (2023) Factors important for bull purchasing decisions and management in extensive rangeland production systems of New Mexico: A producer survey. Translational Animal Science 7:1–13.
[37] Islam KI, Elias EH, Brown C, James D, Heimel S (2022) A statistical approach to using remote sensing data to discern streamflow variable influence in the snowmelt-dominated Upper Rio Grande Basin. Remote Sensing 14:6076. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14236076
[36] Elias EH, Savoy HM, Swanson DA, Cohnstaedt LW, Peters DPC, Derner JD, Pelzel-McCluskey A, Drolet B, Rodriguez L (2022) Landscape dynamics of a vector-borne disease in the western US: How vector–habitat relationships inform disease hotspots. Ecosphere 13(11):e4267. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4267
[35] Dinan M, Elias EH, Webb N, Zwicke G, Dye TS, Aney S, Brady M, Brown JR, Dobos RR, DuBois D, Edwards B, Heimel S, Luke N, Rottler CM, Steele C (2021) Addressing air quality, agriculture, and climate change across the Southwest and Southern Plains: A roadmap for research, extension, and policy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102(7):1394–1401. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMSD-21-0088.1
[34] Elias EH, James D, Heimel S, Steele C, Steltzer H, Dott C (2021) Implications of observed changes in high mountain snow water storage, snowmelt timing and melt window. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 35:100799. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100799
[33] Peterson CL, Brandt LA, Elias EH, Hurteau SR (2021) Community forests prepare for climate change. Eos 102. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EO154456
[32] Baffaut C, Baker JM, Biederman JA, Bosch DD, Brooks ES, Buda AR, Demaria EM, Elias EH, Flerchinger GN, Goodrich DC, Hamilton SK, Hardegree SP, Harmel RD, Hoover DL, King KW, Kleinman PJ, Liebig MA, McCarty GW, Moglen GE, Moorman TB, Moriasi DN, Okalebo J, Pierson FB, Russell ES, Saliendra NZ, Saha AK, Smith DR, Yasarer LMW (2020) Comparative analysis of water budgets across the U.S. long-term agroecosystem research network. Journal of Hydrology 588:125021.
[31] Elias EH, Aney S, Duff G, Gifford C, Spiegal S, Cibils A, Steiner J, Estell R (2020) Snapshot of rancher perspectives on creative cattle management options. Rangelands 42(6):191–195.
[30] Levi MR, Krueger ES, Snitker GJ, Ochsner T, Villarreal ML, Elias EH, Peck DE (2019) Rating fire danger from the ground up. Eos 100. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EO137858
[29] Spiegal S, Cibils A, Bestelmeyer B, Steiner J, Estell R, Archer D, Auvermann B, Bestelmeyer S, Boucheron L, Cao H, Cox A, Devlin D, Duff G, Ehlers K, Elias EH, Gifford C, Gonzalez A, Holland J, Jennings J, Marshall A, McCracken D, McIntosh M, Miller R, Musumba M, Paulin R, Place S, Redd M, Rotz A, Tolle C (2019) Beef production in the southwestern United States: Strategies toward sustainability. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems 4:114.
[28] Elias EH, Flynn R, Idowu OJ, Reyes J, Sanogo S, Schutte BJ, Smith R, Steele C, Sutherland C (2019) Crop vulnerability to weather and climate risk: Analysis of interacting systems and adaptation efficacy for sustainable crop production. Sustainability 11(23):6619. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11236619
[27] Reyes J, Elias EH, Haacker E, Kremen A, Parker L, Rottler C (2020) Assessing agricultural risk management using historic crop insurance loss data over the Ogallala Aquifer. Agricultural Water Management 232:106000. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106000
[26] Marklein A, Elias EH, Nico P, Steenwerth K (2020) Projected temperature increases may require shifts in the growing season of cool-season crops and the growing locations of warm-season crops. Science of the Total Environment 746:140918.
[25] Reyes JJ, Williamson J, Elias EH (2018) Spatio-temporal analysis of federal crop insurance cause of loss data: A roadmap for research and outreach efforts. White paper submitted to the USDA Climate Hubs Program.
[24] Steenwerth K, Elias EH (2018) Impact of warming temperatures on wine grapes of the San Francisco Bay region. In: Fourth California Climate Assessment, Bay Area Regional Report.
[23] Reyes JR, Elias EH (2019) Spatio-temporal variation in crop loss. Environmental Research Letters 14:7. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1ac9
[22] Edwards BL, Webb NP, Brown DP, Elias EH, Peck DE, Pierson FB, Williams CJ, Herrick JE (2019) Climate change impacts on wind and water erosion on US rangelands. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 74(4):260–273. https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.74.4.405
[21] Gonzalez P, Garfin GM, Breshears DD, Brooks KM, Brown HE, Elias EH, Gunasekara A, Huntly N, Maldonado JK, Mantua NJ, Margolis HG, McAfee S, Middleton BR, Udall BH (2018) Southwest. In: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States. https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/25/
[20] Peters DPC, Burruss ND, Rodriguez LL, McVey DS, Elias EH, Pelzel-McCluskey AM, Derner JD, Schrader TS, Yao J, Pauszek SJ, Lombard J, Archer SR, Bestelmeyer BT, Browning DM, Brungard CW, Hatfield JL, Hanan NP, Herrick JE, Okin GS, Sala OE, Savoy H, Vivoni ER (2018) An integrated view of complex landscapes: A big data–model integration approach to transdisciplinary science. BioScience 68(9):653–669. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biy069
[19] Elias EH, McVey DS, Peters D, Derner J, Pelzel-McCluskey PA, Schrader TS, Rodriguez L (2018) Contributions of hydrology to vesicular stomatitis virus emergence in the western United States. Ecosystems 21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-018-0278-5
[18] Steele CM, Reyes JJ, Elias EH, Rango A (2018) Cascading impacts of climate change on southwestern U.S. cropland agriculture. Climatic Change 148:437–450. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2220-4
[17] Elias EH, Reyes JJ, Steele CM, Rango A (2018) Diverse landscapes, diverse risks: Climate change and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier southwestern United States. Climatic Change. https://rdcu.be/PugY
[16] Steele C, Dialesandro J, James D, Elias EH, Rango A (2017) Evaluating MODIS snow products for modelling snowmelt runoff: Case study of the Rio Grande headwaters. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 63:234–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2017.08.007
[15] Elias EH, Marklein A, Abatzoglou JT, Dialesandro J, Brown J, Steele CM, Rango A, Steenwerth K (2016) Vulnerability of field crops to midcentury temperature changes and yield effects in the southwestern United States. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2108-8
[14] Kerr A, Dialesandro J, Steenwerth K, Elias EH, Lopez-Brody N (2016) Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2011-3
[13] Elias EH, Schrader TS, Abatzoglou JT, Crimmins M, Weiss J, Rango A (2017) County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands within USDA Climate Hub regions. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2040-y
[12] Brown J, Alvarez P, Byrd K, Deswood H, Elias EH, Spiegal S (2017) Coping with historic drought on California rangelands: Developing a more effective institutional response. Rangelands. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rala.2017.01.002
[11] Elias EH, Rodriguez H, Srivastava P, Dougherty M, James D, Smith R (2016) Impacts of forest to urban land conversion and ENSO phase on water quality of a public water supply reservoir. Forests 7:29. https://doi.org/10.3390/f7020029
[10] Elias EH, Rango A, Steele CM, Mejia JF, Baca R, James DK, Schrader TS, Gronemeyer P (2016) Simulated impact of climate change on hydrology of multiple watersheds using traditional and recommended Snowmelt Runoff Methodology. Journal of Water and Climate Change 7(4):665–682. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2016.097
[9] Herrick JE, Beh A, Barrios E, Bouvier I, Coetzee M, Dent D, Elias EH, Hengl T, Karl JW, Liniger H, Matuszak J, Neff JC, Ndungu LW, Obersteiner M, Shepherd KD, Urama KC, Van den Bosch R, Webb NP (2016) The Land-Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS): Mobile apps and collaboration for optimizing climate change investments. Ecosystem Health and Sustainability 2:e01209. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ehs2.1209/pdf
[8] Elias EH, Rango A, Smith R, Maxwell C, Steele CM, Havstad K (2016) Climate change, agriculture and water resources of the southwestern United States. Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education 158:46–61. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1936-704X.2016.03218.x
[7] Havstad K, Brown JR, Estell R, Elias EH, Rango A, Steele CM (2016) Vulnerabilities of southwestern US rangeland-based animal agriculture to climate change. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1834-7
[6] Elias EH, Rango A, Steele CM, Mejia JF, Smith R (2015) Assessing climate change impacts on water availability of snowmelt-dominated basins of the Upper Rio Grande Basin. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 3:525–546. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.04.004
[5] Elias EH, Steele CM, Havstad K, Steenwerth K, Chambers JC, Deswood H, Kerr A, Rango A, Schwartz MW, Stine P, Steele R, Anderson T (2015) Southwest Regional Climate Hub and California Subsidiary Hub Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. U.S. Department of Agriculture, 76 pp.
[4] Sharma S, Srivastava P, Kalin L, Fang X, Elias EH (2014) Predicting total organic carbon load with El Niño Southern Oscillation phase using hybrid and fuzzy logic approaches. Transactions of the ASABE 57:1071–1085. https://doi.org/10.13031/trans.57.10568
[3] Elias EH, Laband D, Dougherty M (2013) Estimating the public water supply protection value of forests. Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education 152:94–104. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1936-704X.2013.03171.x
[2] Elias EH, Dougherty M, Srivastava P, Laband D (2011) The impact of forest to urban land conversion on streamflow, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon inputs to the Converse Reservoir, southern Alabama, USA. Urban Ecosystems 16:79–107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-011-0198-z
[1] Elias EH (2010) Valuing ecosystem services from forested landscapes: How urbanization influences drinking water treatment cost. PhD dissertation, Auburn University.